Election Day in NY-20—widely seen as a referendum on Obama and a harbinger of Steele's fate—is tomorrow. Though the president waited till late in the race before lending Democrat Scott Muphy a hand, he appears prominently on the candidate's recent mailers. Sarah Palin appears (alongside unpopular conservatives Rush Limbaugh and George Bush) in a different Murphy mailer, offering some insight into how the potential 2012 candidate plays in swing districts like NY-20.

Palin's lack of appeal may result from a long series of PR mishaps, which some see as a hit-job by the media and others blame on an inexperienced staff.

Politico sits down with former Bush and McCain strategist Mark McKinnon (and former Politics Mover & Shaker) for a casual interview.

And finally, for the statistics buffs, a look at how risk and risk aversion affects political persuasion.