The latest Zogby daily tracking poll out Wednesday is the second poll in as many days to give Democrat Barack Obama a big lead over John McCain. It’s just about a 10 point lead over the Republican with 51.6 percent for Obama and 42 percent for McCain.

 

Looking at the trend, pollster John Zogby says it’s starting to look like 1980 when Ronald Reagan defeated Jimmy Carter in a landslide…

“These numbers, if they hold, are blowout numbers. They fit the 1980 model with Reagan's victory over Carter -- but they are happening 12 days before Reagan blasted ahead.

 

If Obama wins like this we can be talking not only victory but realignment: he leads by 27 points among Independents, 27 points among those who have already voted, 16 among newly registered voters, 31 among Hispanics, 93%-2% among African Americans, 16 among women, 27 among those 18-29, 5 among 30-49 year olds, 8 among 50-64’s, 4 among those over 65, 25 among Moderates, and 12 among Catholics (which is better than Bill Clinton's 10-point victory among Catholics in 1996).

 

He leads with men by 2 points, and is down among whites by only 6 points, down 2 in armed forces households, 3 among investors, and is tied among NASCAR fans.”


Shane D'Aprile is web editor at Politics magazine. sdaprile@politicsmagazine.com